In 2026, organizations are not short of information, but making sense of it is becoming more difficult. When risk signals emerge, they spread quickly across regions and industries, often overlapping in ways that make it harder to understand how an event could affect your organization.
In this environment, clarity is essential.
Securitas’ Annual Intelligence Estimate (AIE) is designed to provide that clarity. By bringing together commercial and geopolitical insights into a structured, cross-industry assessment, it gives organizations a strategic view of the risks shaping the year, supported by practical guidance from a global team of security experts.
But risk does not stand still. As events unfold, that original picture changes. The 2026 Mid-Year Review revisits the initial assessments, cutting through the noise to show how risks are developing and what those changes could mean now.
“The initial report grounds organizations in what we see as the most important risks. The Mid-Year Review then provides a timely update by looking at what has actually happened so far, and how those risks are evolving,” explains Sophie Cairney, Lead Risk Intelligence Consultant, Securitas Risk Intelligence Center.
Clarity in a noisy world, the most recent report by Securitas Risk Intelligence is a Mid-Year Review of the Annual Intelligence Estimate and it is designed for a wide audience. It gives leadership, security teams, and operational stakeholders a shared point of reference to come back together, reassess priorities, and align their response.
So how should organizations use this updated view on evolving risks? At the highest level, our updated insights can help shape strategic conversations and planning. And for security and operational teams, the detailed sections, examples, and advisory points provide a more practical view of what to watch for and how to respond.
The landscape isn’t moving in a single direction
Of the 25 risk assessment topics identified at the start of the year, 12 have worsened, 12 have stabilized, and one has improved. Rather than a clear upward or downward trend, the result is a risk landscape that is uneven and shifting.
For organizations, that means managing several developments at once. Some risks are intensifying while others remain constant, creating an environment where exposure can change quickly.
“Something that happens 5,000 miles away can be outside your door the next day,” says Cairney. “Businesses today are far more aware of how events in one place can quickly impact operations elsewhere.”
Risks do not act alone
Understanding how risks interact is becoming as important as identifying them. Geopolitical developments, economic pressure, technological change, and social dynamics are intersecting in ways that are not always predictable.
This means disruption often comes from indirect sources.
“You might not be directly involved, but something that affects a partner, a supplier, or even a completely separate organization can still disrupt your operations. In some cases, targeting second or third parties can have more impact than targeting the organization itself,” Cairney notes.
That dynamic is becoming more visible across sectors. A campaign that starts online can lead to disruption at physical sites. A supplier issue in one region can delay operations in another. These are not isolated incidents, but connected effects that move through systems, relationships, and dependencies.
The challenge is no longer just identifying individual threats. It is understanding how exposure spreads, and shaping security strategies around that reality.
Turning insight into action requires shared awareness
Responding effectively requires organizations to share and apply intelligence across teams.
“Security is a team sport. It’s not just down to the security team. Everyone across the organization has a role to play, because risks do not sit neatly in one place,” says Cairney.
In many cases, the gap is not access to information, but how that information is communicated. Insights may sit within one function without reaching others who are affected. A pattern observed in customer behavior or online activity may only become meaningful when viewed across teams.
For example, an increase in online criticism of an executive may begin as a reputational issue. Without visibility across teams, it may not be shared with those responsible for site security or travel risk until it escalates further.
Regular reassessments help close that gap. Bringing stakeholders together throughout the year allows organizations to increase awareness, test assumptions, adjust priorities, and respond with greater consistency and confidence.
Clarity that can be acted on
Knowing what is happening is only part of the challenge. The harder task is understanding why it matters to the organization and what to do next.
A supply chain disruption or a shift in geopolitical policy may seem separate at first glance. In reality, each can affect operations, partners, and people in ways that are not immediately visible. Without context, it’s easy to miss how these developments connect.
If a key supplier is suddenly unable to deliver, teams need to understand the impact and act without delay. If an undersea cable disruption interrupts connectivity in a region, organizations need to assess how that affects operations and continuity.
The Mid-Year Review offers a way to step back and reassess with that context in place. It connects global and regional events and helps organizations identify where exposure is increasing and where it may be overlooked.
Explore Clarity in a noisy world – our 2026 Mid-Year Annual Intelligence Estimate Review for detailed, sector-specific insights into how current risks may affect operations in practice and how you can prepare for them.
